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Sao Paulo vs Atletico-MG Prediction - 5 September 2026

Serie ABrazilFull time
Sao Paulo
2-0
Atletico-MG

Our pick:Under 3.5 goals

91%Odds 1.25Won

Correct score1-0Alternative0-0

Bookmaker odds

Home2.09price rising, opened at 2.02
Draw3.36price falling, opened at 3.40
Away3.60price falling, opened at 3.78
More markets
Total goals
Over 1.51.35price rising, opened at 1.34
Under 1.52.76price falling, opened at 2.80
Over 2.52.23price rising, opened at 2.19
Under 2.51.66price falling, opened at 1.67
Over 3.53.92price rising, opened at 3.85
Under 3.51.18price falling, opened at 1.19
Both teams to score
Yes1.92price rising, opened at 1.90
No1.79price falling, opened at 1.80
Odd/Even
Odd1.85
Even1.82
Handicap
Home -0.251.78price rising, opened at 1.73
Away +0.252.03price falling, opened at 2.11

What is the prediction for Sao Paulo vs Atletico-MG?

Our correct score is 1-0, then 0-0. Atletico-MG are in better form heading into this match.

Methodology

Match analysis

Atletico-MG arrive at Sao Paulo on 5 September having played four matches in the last 14 days, and that workload is a real part of why Superior backs Under 3.5 goals at 1.25 for this Brazilian Serie A meeting, priced at an 80 percent probability.

Atletico-MG have played four matches in 14 days on three days' rest

That congestion is a real factor here: sides carrying a heavy recent schedule tend to manage games rather than chase them open, and Atletico-MG's own form, a run of two draws and one loss without a heavy scoreline in any of the last five, backs that up. Sao Paulo, fighting relegation from 11th with 14 games left, have also been tight at the back, with three of their last five decided by a single goal.

Sao Paulo's 3-1 home win shows the ceiling is there

The pick loses if this produces four goals or more, and Sao Paulo's 3-1 win earlier in their run crossed that line on its own. Atletico-MG have also shipped two goals in a 2-1 loss this season. If Sao Paulo's home attack finds its rhythm again while Atletico-MG's tired legs show at the back, this could open up past 3.5.

Written by the Superior Football Desk

More tips for this game

  • Goals: Under 2.5Won1.69
  • BTTS: NoWon1.88
  • Correct score: 1-0Lost6.00
Compare bookmakers

Premium

After full time

Top five correct scores

  1. 1-019.9%Our score
  2. 0-019.0%Alternative
  3. 1-112.2%
  4. 0-111.7%
  5. 2-010.4%

Top five combined: 73.2%

Full score grid

Score Matrix

HomeSao PauloxG1.05
AwayAtletico-MGxG0.61
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
0
19%
20%
10%
3.6%
0.9%
0.2%
<0.1%
1
12%
12%
6.4%
2.2%
0.6%
0.1%
<0.1%
2
3.6%
3.8%
2.0%
0.7%
0.2%
<0.1%
<0.1%
3
0.7%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
4
0.1%
0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
5
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
6+
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%

Goals and BTTS chances

Both teams to score Yes 29.8%70.2% No
Over 1.5 49.5%50.5% Under 1.5
Over 2.5 23.3%76.7% Under 2.5
Over 3.5 8.7%91.3% Under 3.5

Combos

Combos

Sao Paulo win and over 2.5 goals15.1%
Sao Paulo win and both teams score10.3%
Atletico-MG win and over 2.5 goals6.0%
Draw and under 2.5 goals31.2%
Outcome markets
Sao Paulo or draw78.7%
Atletico-MG or draw54.6%
Either team wins66.7%
Draw no bet: Sao Paulo68.1%
Draw no bet: Atletico-MG31.9%
Sao Paulo win to nil35.1%
Atletico-MG win to nil16.1%
Team goals
Sao Paulo to score64.9%
Atletico-MG to score45.9%
Sao Paulo over 1.5 goals28.1%
Atletico-MG over 1.5 goals12.7%
Sao Paulo clean sheet54.1%
Atletico-MG clean sheet35.1%

Today's acca

1 games, total odds 1.35Won

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RB Bragantino
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Total goals: Under 3.579% 1.37
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Formations

Expected formations

Sao Paulo: 4-4-2(predicted)Atletico-MG: 4-2-3-1(predicted)
Head to Head

Head to Head

Atletico-MG
1 - 0
Sao Paulo
18 March 2026
Sao Paulo
2 - 0
Atletico-MG
24 August 2025
Atletico-MG
0 - 0
Sao Paulo
6 April 2025
Sao Paulo vs Atletico-MG: Head-to-Head History
DateHomeScoreAway
18 March 2026Atletico-MG1 - 0Sao Paulo
24 August 2025Sao Paulo2 - 0Atletico-MG
6 April 2025Atletico-MG0 - 0Sao Paulo
League Table

League Table

Serie ABrazil · 2026/2027
#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
Flamengo
2717645322+3157
2
Palmeiras
2716834721+2656
3
Atletico Paranaense
2713774131+1046
4
Bahia
27121054233+946
5
Fluminense
2712964135+645
6
Cruzeiro FC
2712693939042
7
Cruzeiro
218672730-330
7
Atletico-MG
2711793632+440
8
Santos
2710894140+138
9
Coritiba
28108103739-238
10
RB Bragantino
26106103229+336
11
Botafogo
2898114145-435
12
Sao Paulo
2797113130+134
13
Vitoria
2796122739-1233
14
Corinthians
2788112829-132
15
Mirassol
2888123342-932
16
Vasco DA Gama
2787123041-1131
17
Internacional
28611113035-529
18
Gremio
2777133038-828
19
Remo
2858153247-1523
20
Chapecoense-sc
2739152953-2418
20
Chapecoense B
2017121941-2210
Relegation
Serie A - League Table
PositionTeamPlayedWonDrawnLostGoals ForGoals AgainstGoal DifferencePointsForm
1Flamengo27176453223157DDWWL
2Palmeiras27168347212656WLWWW
3Atletico Paranaense27137741311046DWWWW
4Bahia27121054233946DDDWW
5Fluminense2712964135645DDDDL
6Cruzeiro FC2712693939042
7Cruzeiro218672730-330WLWDW
7Atletico-MG2711793632440WDWLW
8Santos2710894140138DLWLL
9Coritiba28108103739-238LDLLW
10RB Bragantino26106103229336DDWWW
11Botafogo2898114145-435WDWLD
12Sao Paulo2797113130134DLLDL
13Vitoria2796122739-1233LLDWL
14Corinthians2788112829-132DDWWW
15Mirassol2888123342-932WDWLW
16Vasco DA Gama2787123041-1131DLLLL
17Internacional28611113035-529DLLLL
18Gremio2777133038-828DLLWD
19Remo2858153247-1523LWLWL
20Chapecoense-sc2739152953-2418
20Chapecoense B2017121941-2210