Athletic Club vs Sport Recife Prediction - 1 October 2026
Our pick:Over 1.5 goals
70%Odds 1.40
Correct score1-1Alternative2-1
What is the prediction for Athletic Club vs Sport Recife?
Our correct score is 1-1, then 2-1. Athletic Club are in better form heading into this match.
Match analysis
Athletic Club vs Sport Recife on 1 October is a meeting of two mid-table Serie B sides with nothing pressing at either end of the table, and both keep finding the net. Superior's pick is Over 1.5 goals at 1.40 with a 70% chance.
Every one of the two sides' last ten games had at least two goals
Superior builds each side's expected scoring from what it has scored and conceded, then prices every scoreline on a Poisson grid. Here the two rates land close together, so the grid spreads its weight across 1-1, 2-1 and the one-goal scores instead of piling onto a blank. The recent record fits that shape: Athletic beat Vila Nova 5-0 and drew 2-2 at Fortaleza on 27 September, while Sport Recife's last five ended 1-3, 2-1, 1-2, 2-0 and 1-2. The two meetings this year, both in Recife, finished 1-1 and 3-1 to Athletic.
Athletic were shut out 3-0 at Cuiaba on 8 September
Over 1.5 loses to 0-0, 1-0 or 0-1, and Athletic have already had a night without a goal this month, beaten 3-0 at Cuiaba. A repeat blank at home with Sport Recife scoring once is a 0-1, and that is the route the grid leaves open. Its single likeliest score is 1-1, which wins the bet, but one goal fewer from either side loses it.
More tips for this game
- Correct score: 1-1
Today's acca
2 games, total odds 1.66Get the daily pick and the morning ticket on Telegram.
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Formations
Expected formations
Head to Head
Head to Head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 June 2026 | Sport Recife | 1 - 1 | Athletic Club |
| 18 March 2026 | Sport Recife | 1 - 3 | Athletic Club |
League Table
League Table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30 | +12 | 54 | ||
| 2 | 30 | +9 | 52 | ||
| 3 | 30 | +22 | 51 | ||
| 4 | 29 | +12 | 50 | ||
| 5 | 30 | +4 | 50 | ||
| 6 | 30 | +10 | 49 | ||
| 7 | 30 | +4 | 48 | ||
| 8 | 30 | +5 | 48 | ||
| 9 | 30 | +8 | 44 | ||
| 10 | 30 | +5 | 43 | ||
| 11 | 30 | -6 | 42 | ||
| 12 | 30 | +9 | 42 | ||
| 13 | 30 | +3 | 42 | ||
| 14 | 30 | +1 | 41 | ||
| 15 | 30 | -6 | 36 | ||
| 16 | 29 | -4 | 32 | ||
| 17 | 30 | -11 | 30 | ||
| 18 | 30 | -4 | 28 | ||
| 19 | 29 | -28 | 17 | ||
| 20 | 29 | -45 | 13 |
| Position | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals For | Goals Against | Goal Difference | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Nova | 30 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 43 | 31 | 12 | 54 | LWLLW |
| 2 | Fortaleza EC | 30 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 35 | 26 | 9 | 52 | WLWLW |
| 3 | Novorizontino | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 49 | 27 | 22 | 51 | WLLLW |
| 4 | Juventude | 29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 31 | 19 | 12 | 50 | WLWWD |
| 5 | Criciuma | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 31 | 27 | 4 | 50 | DWWWW |
| 6 | Atletico Goianiense | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 37 | 27 | 10 | 49 | WWDWL |
| 7 | CRB | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 45 | 41 | 4 | 48 | WWWDL |
| 8 | Operario-PR | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 43 | 38 | 5 | 48 | LWDWW |
| 9 | Sport Recife | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 40 | 32 | 8 | 44 | DDDDL |
| 10 | Cuiaba | 30 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 30 | 25 | 5 | 43 | DLLDW |
| 11 | Goias | 30 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 42 | LDWDW |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 40 | 31 | 9 | 42 | LLDDL |
| 13 | Athletic Club | 30 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 36 | 33 | 3 | 42 | DWDDL |
| 14 | Nautico Recife | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 38 | 37 | 1 | 41 | DWLLD |
| 15 | Ceara | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 36 | WLDDL |
| 16 | Botafogo SP | 29 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 32 | LWDDW |
| 17 | Avai | 30 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 30 | 41 | -11 | 30 | LWDWL |
| 18 | Londrina | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 39 | 43 | -4 | 28 | LLDDW |
| 19 | America Mineiro | 29 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 21 | 49 | -28 | 17 | WLDDL |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 29 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 17 | 62 | -45 | 13 | DLLLL |
