What is a surebet?
A surebet, also called an arbitrage bet, is a set of bets on every result of one match, each at a different bookmaker. It shows up when bookmakers disagree on the odds, and the bet that wins pays back more than everything you staked, whichever result comes in.
Say one bookmaker has Over 2.5 goals at 2.12 and another has Under 2.5 at 1.98. Put 46 on Over and 49 on Under, 95 in total. Three goals or more and Over pays 97.52; two or fewer and Under pays 97.02. You get back more than the 95 you staked either way.
The stakes aren't equal because the odds aren't. The bigger odds get the smaller stake, so every result pays back about the same.
Why a surebet gets voided or limited
A bookmaker can cancel a bet it took at a clear mistake in its odds, and odds far above every other bookmaker's are the ones it checks. If one bet is cancelled and the other stands, you're left with one normal bet that can lose.
Bookmakers also cap how much you can stake and can lower that cap for an account that bets this way, so a stake above it gets refused or cut. Football bets settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time unless the market says extra time, so every bet on a surebet has to be on the same 90 minutes.
Is arbitrage betting legal?
Yes, wherever betting with those bookmakers is legal for you. A surebet is one ordinary bet at each bookmaker, and each bookmaker's own terms decide whether it keeps taking your bets.
Surebet questions
Is a surebet a sure win?
Every result pays back more than you staked, as long as each bet stands at the odds you took. What can go wrong is odds that drop before your second bet, a bet the bookmaker cancels, or a stake cap, and the profit on one surebet is usually a few percent.
Do I need accounts at two bookmakers?
Yes, one at each bookmaker on the surebet, with money in it before you start. Over and Under uses two bookmakers, and a home, draw and away surebet uses three.
Which bet do I place first?
The one numbered 1. Its odds are the most likely to drop or be refused, so any change shows up before you've put money on the other side.
How much money do I need?
Any amount the bookmakers accept. The profit is a share of what you stake, so a bigger total makes more money at the same odds, up to each bookmaker's maximum stake.
Why are the stakes rounded?
Round stakes are quicker to type. Rounding moves each payout a little, so the smallest payout sets the profit, and a thin surebet can lose it when you round to a big unit.
What if the odds change before I place the second bet?
Work the stakes out again at the new odds, keeping the stake you've already placed. If the odds dropped, the second bet costs more, and the calculator shows whether every result still pays back more than you staked.
Do betting taxes change the profit?
Yes. A tax on deposits, withdrawals or winnings comes out of a margin of a few percent, so it can turn a surebet into a loss.
