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Danubio vs Peñarol Montevideo Prediction - 24 September 2026

Copa UruguayUruguayFull time
Danubio
1-1
Peñarol Montevideo

Our pick:Under 3.5 goals

77%Odds 1.23Won

Correct score0-1Alternative0-2

Bookmaker odds

Home2.75price falling, opened at 3.13
Draw2.78price falling, opened at 2.90
Away2.51price rising, opened at 2.17
More markets
Total goals
Over 1.51.39price rising, opened at 1.33
Under 1.52.59price falling, opened at 2.90
Over 2.52.27price rising, opened at 2.10
Under 2.51.54price falling, opened at 1.65
Over 3.54.00price rising, opened at 3.70
Under 3.51.17price falling, opened at 1.22
Both teams to score
Yes1.90price rising, opened at 1.85
No1.78price falling, opened at 1.91
Odd/Even
Odd1.91
Even1.74
Handicap
Home +01.91price falling, opened at 2.25
Away +01.75price rising, opened at 1.57

What is the prediction for Danubio vs Peñarol Montevideo?

Our correct score is 0-1, then 0-2. Peñarol Montevideo are in better form heading into this match.

Methodology

Match analysis

Danubio host Penarol Montevideo in the Copa Uruguay on 24 September, and Superior's model settles on a 0-1 away win, with 0-2 the more emphatic alternative. Penarol are averaging 2.2 goals a game against Danubio's 0.4, and the two sides met as recently as 5 September, when Penarol won 0-4 on the road.

Penarol have won three of their last five

Penarol's recent form carries real weight here: three wins in their last five, including a 4-0 and a 3-1, against a single defeat. Danubio's own run in the same window has produced no wins at all, just two draws and three defeats, one of them a 0-4 at home.

The two sides met three weeks ago, and Penarol won 0-4

That earlier meeting on 5 September is the clearest single data point available: Penarol away, Danubio at home, an identical fixture shape to this one, ended 0-4. It is one result rather than a full pattern, and it lines up with both sides' broader form and with Danubio going into this on four days' rest rather than a fuller recovery window.

Danubio have found the net in four of their last five

The one scoreline detail working against a clean shutout is that Danubio have actually scored in four of their last five matches, including a goal in a 1-1 draw. If that shows up here, the shutout the model's leading number assumes does not hold, and a 1-1 or a 1-2 becomes a realistic finish alongside a repeat 0-4.

Written by the Superior Football Desk

More tips for this game

  • Asian Handicap: Away -0.25Lost1.83
  • Asian Handicap: Away -0.5Lost2.10
  • Match Winner: AwayLost2.17
Compare bookmakers

Premium

After full time

Top five correct scores

  1. 0-113.0%Our score
  2. 0-212.2%Alternative
  3. 1-29.8%
  4. 1-19.1%
  5. 0-37.3%

Top five combined: 51.4%

Full score grid

Score Matrix

HomeDanubioxG0.82
AwayPeñarol MontevideoxG1.84
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
0
5.8%
5.6%
2.6%
0.9%
0.3%
<0.1%
<0.1%
1
13%
9.1%
4.3%
1.3%
0.3%
<0.1%
<0.1%
2
12%
9.8%
3.6%
1.2%
0.3%
<0.1%
<0.1%
3
7.3%
5.9%
2.6%
0.7%
0.2%
<0.1%
<0.1%
4
3.6%
2.9%
1.1%
0.4%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
5
1.5%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
6+
0.6%
0.5%
0.2%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%

Goals and BTTS chances

Both teams to score Yes 46.5%53.5% No
Over 1.5 75.6%24.4% Under 1.5
Over 2.5 51.7%48.3% Under 2.5
Over 3.5 29.4%70.6% Under 3.5

Combos

Combos

Danubio win and over 2.5 goals9.2%
Danubio win and both teams score7.9%
Peñarol Montevideo win and over 2.5 goals38.2%
Draw and under 2.5 goals14.9%
Outcome markets
Danubio or draw36.6%
Peñarol Montevideo or draw82.6%
Either team wins80.8%
Draw no bet: Danubio21.6%
Draw no bet: Peñarol Montevideo78.4%
Danubio win to nil9.5%
Peñarol Montevideo win to nil38.3%
Team goals
Danubio to score56.0%
Peñarol Montevideo to score84.7%
Danubio over 1.5 goals21.1%
Peñarol Montevideo over 1.5 goals56.5%
Danubio clean sheet15.3%
Peñarol Montevideo clean sheet44.0%

Today's acca

1 games, total odds 1.35

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Prediction, preview and head to head: Danubio vs Peñarol Montevideo
Head to Head

Head to Head

Danubio
0 - 4
Peñarol Montevideo
5 September 2026
Danubio vs Peñarol Montevideo: Head-to-Head History
DateHomeScoreAway
5 September 2026Danubio0 - 4Peñarol Montevideo