Skip to picks
Offers

Italy vs Belgium Prediction - 25 September 2026

UEFA Nations LeagueWorldFull time
Italy
0-2
Belgium

Our pick:Over 1.5 goals

76%Odds 1.27Won

Correct score1-1Alternative1-2

Bookmaker odds

Home2.06price falling, opened at 2.17
Draw3.64price rising, opened at 3.56
Away3.40price rising, opened at 3.22
More markets
Total goals
Over 1.51.20price falling, opened at 1.22
Under 1.54.56price rising, opened at 3.74
Over 2.51.66price falling, opened at 1.80
Under 2.52.21price rising, opened at 2.01
Over 3.52.64price falling, opened at 2.88
Under 3.51.49price rising, opened at 1.35
Both teams to score
Yes1.57price falling, opened at 1.63
No2.41price rising, opened at 2.17
Odd/Even
Odd1.93price rising, opened at 1.87
Even1.82price falling, opened at 1.83
Handicap
Home -0.251.77price falling, opened at 1.86
Away +0.252.06price rising, opened at 1.94

What is the prediction for Italy vs Belgium?

Our correct score is 1-1, then 1-2. Italy are in better form heading into this match.

Methodology

Match analysis

A 6.9 attack rating for Belgium is landing on the softest defence on this Nations League slate, Italy's 5.9, when the two meet on 25 September. Superior backs Over 1.5 goals for Italy vs Belgium at 1.27. The model prices it at 76 percent.

Belgium's attack meets the weaker of the two defences

Belgium have scored in four of their last five matches, including a 4-1 win over the USA and a 5-1 win over New Zealand, and their 6.9 attack rating tops both teams. Italy's 5.9 defence rating is the comparatively weaker figure, though Italy's own attack has been just as busy, with five goals in each of their last three wins. Between them the two sides average 4.8 goals a game, well clear of the 1.5 line this pick needs crossed.

A repeat of Belgium's blank night with Iran

This bet loses only if the match produces fewer than two goals, and Belgium have shown they can go that quiet: a scoreless draw with Iran is their most recent example of the attack stalling. Italy have not been held without a goal in their own last five games, so a low-scoring night here depends on Belgium's front line going missing again, and that single scenario is what beats this line.

Written by the Superior Football Desk

Premium

After full time

Top five correct scores

  1. 1-19.0%Our score
  2. 1-28.7%Alternative
  3. 0-17.1%
  4. 2-16.8%
  5. 1-06.2%

Top five combined: 37.8%

Full score grid

Score Matrix

HomeItalyxG1.62
AwayBelgiumxG1.55
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
0
3.9%
6.2%
4.5%
2.6%
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
1
7.1%
9.0%
6.8%
3.5%
1.5%
0.7%
0.2%
2
6.1%
8.7%
5.3%
2.8%
1.2%
0.5%
0.2%
3
4.1%
4.7%
3.6%
1.5%
0.7%
0.2%
<0.1%
4
2.2%
2.2%
1.4%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
<0.1%
5
1.7%
1.3%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
6+
0.5%
0.4%
0.2%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%

Goals and BTTS chances

Both teams to score Yes 59.0%41.0% No
Over 1.5 82.8%17.2% Under 1.5
Over 2.5 63.2%36.8% Under 2.5
Over 3.5 41.0%59.0% Under 3.5

Combos

Combos

Italy win and over 2.5 goals23.3%
Italy win and both teams score18.6%
Belgium win and over 2.5 goals32.8%
Draw and under 2.5 goals12.9%
Outcome markets
Italy or draw54.0%
Belgium or draw66.1%
Either team wins80.0%
Draw no bet: Italy42.4%
Draw no bet: Belgium57.6%
Italy win to nil15.3%
Belgium win to nil21.7%
Team goals
Italy to score74.4%
Belgium to score80.7%
Italy over 1.5 goals41.8%
Belgium over 1.5 goals51.9%
Italy clean sheet19.3%
Belgium clean sheet25.6%

Today's acca

1 games, total odds 1.35

Get the daily pick and the morning ticket on Telegram.

Join on Telegram

More UEFA Nations League predictions

Georgia
Northern Ireland
Total goals: Over 1.571% 1.36
Armenia
Latvia
Total goals: Under 3.570% 1.34
Poland
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Total goals: Under 3.570% 1.35
View all predictions
Formations

Confirmed formations

Italy: 4-3-3(confirmed lineup)Belgium: 4-2-3-1(confirmed lineup)
Prediction, preview and head to head: Italy vs Belgium