Slovakia vs Kazakhstan Prediction

Our pick:Home win

74%Odds 1.38

Correct score1-0Alternative3-1

Bookmaker odds

Home1.30

Draw4.98

Away11.00

All oddsPremium

What is the prediction for Slovakia vs Kazakhstan?

Our correct score is 1-0, then 3-1. Slovakia are in better form heading into this match.

Methodology

Match analysis

In Slovakia vs Kazakhstan on 29 September, Superior takes the home win because Slovakia score 1.6 goals a game to Kazakhstan's 1.0 and have won three of their last four at home. The price is 1.38, and the model puts a Slovakia win at 74 percent.

Slovakia scored twice in each of their last four home games

The model turns each side's scoring and conceding into an expected goals figure and prices the score grid from there, and at home Slovakia's side of that grid is steady: 2-0 against Luxembourg, 2-0 against Romania, 2-1 against Malta and 2-2 against Montenegro. Kazakhstan carry a 6.7 attack rating, but away from home they lost 3-1 in Hungary, drew 1-1 in Armenia and lost 1-0 in the Faroe Islands. Both of their wins in that run came at home. The correct score is 1-0, with 3-1 the alternative.

Montenegro left Slovakia with a 2-2 draw in June

A draw sinks this pick, and Slovakia have already given one up at home this year when Montenegro scored twice. Kazakhstan's 6.6 defence rating is respectable for a visiting side, and Slovakia also lost 2-0 in Northern Ireland last October. A 1-1 like the one Kazakhstan took in Armenia in June would beat the home win.

Written by the Superior Football Desk