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Viewing 25 September 2026

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Ticket analysis

Stenhousemuir have won 1-0 three times in their last five, and that tight pattern sits beside Algeria vs Zambia on the frozen accumulator for 25 September, two games at total odds of 1.75. The ticket is Over 1.5 goals in Algeria vs Zambia at 1.36 and Under 3.5 goals in Ayr United vs Stenhousemuir at 1.29, and both games have to land; one miss loses it.

Zambia lost 3-0 at home to Morocco and 2-0 in Congo DR

Zambia have conceded in four of their last five, and two of those defeats came against African opposition, 3-0 at home to Morocco and 2-0 away to Congo DR. Superior's model has 2-0 to Algeria as the correct score and 3-0 as the alternative, both of which clear the 1.5 line, and it rates Over 1.5 goals at 73 percent at a price of 1.36.

Ayr and Stenhousemuir average two goals a game between them

Ayr average 0.8 goals scored over their last five and Stenhousemuir 1.2, and the model's correct score is 1-0 to Ayr with 1-1 as the alternative, so it rates Under 3.5 goals at 75 percent at 1.29. Stenhousemuir's run is built on 1-0 wins over Arbroath, Partick and Livingston.

Algeria vs Zambia is the more fragile of the two games

It carries the lower model probability, 73 percent against 75, and leans on one side scoring: Zambia have one goal in their last five, so a 1-0 Algeria win or a goalless draw like Zambia's 0-0 with Comoros loses the ticket. The Scottish game has its own warning, because Ayr lost 3-1 at home to Inverness and Stenhousemuir beat Inverness 3-1, and four goals is exactly where Under 3.5 fails.

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