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Portugal vs Wales Prediction - 24 September 2026

UEFA Nations LeagueWorldFull time
Portugal
1-0
Wales

Our pick:Home win

74%Odds 1.28Won

Correct score2-0Alternative1-0

Bookmaker odds

Home1.14price falling, opened at 1.25
Draw8.30price rising, opened at 5.85
Away18.00price rising, opened at 12.50
More markets
Total goals
Over 1.51.07price falling, opened at 1.15
Under 1.56.20price rising, opened at 4.30
Over 2.51.33price falling, opened at 1.56
Under 2.53.10price rising, opened at 2.24
Over 3.51.88price falling, opened at 2.45
Under 3.51.92price rising, opened at 1.55
Both teams to score
Yes2.03price falling, opened at 2.16
No1.72price rising, opened at 1.63
Odd/Even
Odd1.85price falling, opened at 1.87
Even1.85price rising, opened at 1.83
Handicap
Home -2.251.86
Away +2.251.94

What is the prediction for Portugal vs Wales?

Our correct score is 2-0, then 1-0. Portugal are in better form heading into this match.

Methodology

Match analysis

Portugal vs Wales on 24 September is shaped by Wales' form as much as anything Portugal have done: no win in their last five, including consecutive defeats by 2-4 and 0-3. Superior backs the Portugal home win at 1.28, a call the model rates 74 percent.

Wales have lost three of their last five without a win

Two of those defeats were by multiple goals, 2-4 and 0-3, and the other three results were two draws and a further loss. A side with a defence rating of 6.3 has still conceded that freely inside its own recent matches, which is a big reason the model does not see this as a fixture Wales are well placed to control.

The attack and defence ratings on both sides are almost identical

Portugal and Wales carry near-matching numbers on the model's own scale: an attack rating of 6.2 apiece, and defence ratings of 6.2 for Portugal against 6.3 for Wales. Recent form is doing more of the work behind Portugal as the pick here than those ratings are.

Portugal have also failed to win at home this run

Portugal's own record is not flawless: their last five at this venue include a 0-1 defeat and a 0-0 draw alongside three wins, one of them a 5-0. If the hosts have an off night in front of goal the way they did in that 0-1, Wales' recent form for conceding goals rather than winning matches gives them little to lean on to prevent a draw.

Written by the Superior Football Desk

More tips for this game

  • Goals: Under 3.5Won1.62
  • Goals: Under 2.5Won2.38
  • Correct score: 2-0Lost6.40
Compare bookmakers

Premium

After full time

Top five correct scores

  1. 2-012.6%Our score
  2. 1-011.8%Alternative
  3. 2-19.4%
  4. 3-09.3%
  5. 1-17.7%

Top five combined: 50.8%

Full score grid

Score Matrix

HomePortugalxG2.27
AwayWalesxG0.66
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
0
5.2%
12%
13%
9.3%
5.7%
3.3%
1.8%
1
4.0%
7.7%
9.4%
6.3%
3.5%
1.9%
1.0%
2
1.6%
3.2%
3.0%
2.2%
1.2%
0.6%
0.3%
3
0.5%
0.8%
0.8%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
<0.1%
4
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
5
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
6+
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%

Goals and BTTS chances

Both teams to score Yes 43.9%56.1% No
Over 1.5 79.0%21.0% Under 1.5
Over 2.5 57.1%42.9% Under 2.5
Over 3.5 34.8%65.2% Under 3.5

Combos

Combos

Portugal win and over 2.5 goals47.1%
Portugal win and both teams score27.0%
Wales win and over 2.5 goals6.4%
Draw and under 2.5 goals12.9%
Outcome markets
Portugal or draw88.0%
Wales or draw28.5%
Either team wins83.5%
Draw no bet: Portugal85.7%
Draw no bet: Wales14.3%
Portugal win to nil44.5%
Wales win to nil6.4%
Team goals
Portugal to score88.4%
Wales to score50.3%
Portugal over 1.5 goals64.6%
Wales over 1.5 goals16.5%
Portugal clean sheet49.7%
Wales clean sheet11.6%

Today's acca

1 games, total odds 1.35

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Prediction, preview and head to head: Portugal vs Wales